*MEASURING GUS YAHYA’S CHANCES IF THE PBNU GENERAL CHAIRMAN IS DIRECTLY ELECTED*
By: Adlan Daie
Political analyst, Secretary General of the Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI) for Indramayu Regency.
If the PBNU General Chairman election system remains “directly elected,” meaning the Chairpersons of the PWNU and PCNU are elected, what are Gus Yahya’s chances of being re-elected as PBNU General Chairman at the 35th NU Congress in August 2026?
In the tradition of NU Congresses, as far as the author can recall, the “incumbent” position, since KH Idham Kholid, Gus Dur, KH Hasyim Muzadi, and KH Said Aqil Siradj, has always been elected for a second, or even three, term.
However, in the context of Gus Yahya, it seems unlikely that he will be re-elected at the 35th NU Congress, at least based on several factors related to the shifting map and the following factors:
First, Gus Yahya lost the “factor” of Gus Yaqut, his younger brother, whom Jokowi (then President) appointed as Minister of Religious Affairs. He effectively controlled the “button machine” of votes within the National Awakening Party (PWNU) and the National Awakening Party (PCNU) from civil servants within the Indonesian Ministry of Religious Affairs, garnering no less than 150 votes through political power relations.
Now, Gus Yahya no longer possesses this “luxury” of electoral power in the context of the 35th NU Congress. Gus Yaqut has retired, and things ended relatively unhappily. This is what modern political discourse calls a shift in the “crucial factor.”
Second, there are the factors of Gus Ipul and Nusron Wahid, two key figures in Gus Yahya’s successful election as Chairman of the PBNU at the 34th NU Congress in Lampung in 2021, five years ago. The two are a kind of “compatriot” duo, Gus Yahya’s chosen field commanders, who have now taken an “oppositional” path to Gus Yahya.
Both, like it or not, are adept at playing the rhythm of political consolidation and orchestration at several NU Congresses. Therefore, without them, Gus Yahya would have lost his “system operator” in the dynamic vortex of PBNU leadership succession at the 35th NU Congress.
Third, the Gus Muhaimin factor is important to understand. Although he is not a structural elite member of PBNU, the PKB, the party he leads, is the only party in Indonesia that has a social ecosystem relationship with NU in the regions. PKB and NU are like living under the same roof—just in different “rooms.”
In this context, Gus Muhaimin’s influence is at work in the dynamics of the 35th NU Congress. He almost certainly does not side with Gus Yahya’s faction. In the Gus Yahya era, relations between the Nahdlatul Ulama Executive Board (PBNU) and the National Awakening Party (PKB), the party led by Gus Muhaimin, were not only disharmonious, but also intended to weaken its political influence and electoral trends.
The tactical alliance of Gus Muhaimin, Gus Ipul, and Nusron Wahid, supported by the new power of Professor Nazarudin Umar as Minister of Religious Affairs—all four of whom were brought together in the Prabowo administration—was certainly powerful, combining their respective strengths into a common force.
This means that the union of these four “real factors” will hinder Gus Yahya’s chances of being elected a second term as Chairman of the Nahdlatul Ulama Executive Board, even if he intensively consolidates his efforts in the regions and is backed by a sophisticated “digital team.”
Gus Ipul, as the head of the “committee” handling the three major PBNU agendas (Munas, Konbes, and Muktamar) in one package, is not an “ad hoc” and technical matter, but rather a “system operator” in the dynamic vortex of succession at the 35th NU Congress.
Gus Muhaimin possesses a comprehensive political infrastructure across Indonesia through the National Awakening Party (PKB), the party he leads, to pave the way for consolidation, bringing the NU and PKB social ecosystems under one roof.
Prof. Nazarudin Umar, as Minister of Religious Affairs, has a strong base of votes from the “NU Kemenag” faction, with over 150 voters at the Congress, while Nusron Wahid is experienced and proven in orchestrating political consolidation and orchestration at numerous NU Congresses.
This is the power structure of the four “real factors” that will make it difficult for Gus Yahya to be re-elected as Chairman of the Nahdlatul Ulama Executive Board (PBNU) in the context of the 35th NU Congress.
The problem is that these four “real factors” have not yet reached a consensus on who the joint candidate for Rois Am and Chairman of the PBNU will be, as of the NU National Conference and National Conference in Ploso, Kediri (June 20-21, 2026).
This is certainly not simple, especially since Gus Muhaimin, Gus Ipul, and Nusron Wahid are politicians, each skilled, but also complex in reconciling their political calculations.
This is where Gus Yahya’s remaining chance of re-electing lies if he succeeds in breaking the alliance of these four “real factors.” Unfortunately, Gus Yahya’s inner circle is largely composed of academics with little experience in political negotiations other than social media.
Let’s wait for the dynamics of NU to culminate in the 35th NU Congress, with its potential surprises. A space of probabilities and possibilities whose ending and outcome are often difficult to predict.
Wassalam.
—–
