*Assessing the Chances of Gus Yahya vs. Prof. Nazarudin Umar: Analyzing the ‘Cak Imin’ Factor*
By: Adlan Daie
Political Analyst, General Secretary of the Indramayu Regency MUI (Indonesian Ulema Council)
Indramayu, August 6, 2026
Among the prospective candidates for the General Chairman of PBNU (Executive Board of Nahdlatul Ulama) for the 35th NU Congress in August 2026, two figures stand out as likely to engage in a tight race:
Gus Yahya, the incumbent PBNU General Chairman, and Prof. Nazarudin Umar, the Indonesian Minister of Religious Affairs. However, both currently fall short of a “simple majority”—specifically, the “50% plus” support threshold out of the total 586 votes at the 35th NU Congress.
According to the support cluster map released by the “Nahdiyin Intelligence Syndicate” (SIN), projected support for Gus Yahya peaks at 125 votes (21.3%), while Nazarudin Umar peaks at 200 votes (34.7%); both figures remain below the “50% plus” mark (294 votes).
This implies that out of the 586 total Congress votes, 271 votes (46%) remain “fluid”—or what political parlance terms the “floating vote”—distributed among other candidates such as Gus Salam, Gus Yusuf, Gus Kikin, Gus Rozin, KH Zulfa, and KH Imam Jazuli.
To secure the “50% plus” support required for victory under NU’s rules of procedure and statutes/bylaws (AD/ART), Gus Yahya would need an additional 170 votes, while Nazarudin Umar would need an additional 95 votes.
Securing these additional votes to reach the “50% plus” winning threshold will be no easy task for either Gus Yahya or Nazarudin Umar. This is because the voting delegates—the chairpersons of the PWNU (provincial level) and PCNU (district level)—are largely savvy and skilled at playing the political “tug-of-war.”
Furthermore, Gus Yahya faces a difficult situation; he is perceived as part of the conflict within the current PBNU leadership. The 35th NU Congress is viewed as the starting point to resolve this PBNU conflict—or to end what senior political analyst Fahri Ali terms NU’s “factionalism.”
Meanwhile, Nazaruddin Umar faces resistance; his position as a minister—specifically leading the Ministry of Religious Affairs—raises concerns among some that NU might become a mere “sub-contractor” to the ministry, thereby losing the critical “DNA” that defines it as a mass organization vis-à-vis the ruling political regime.
This is where the role of Cak Imin becomes crucial in the dynamics of the 35th NU Congress at the Tambak Beras Islamic Boarding School in Jombang. Cak Imin is a “Gus” (a title for the son of a prominent Islamic scholar) hailing from one of NU’s epicenters; he comes from the lineage of KH Bisri Syansuri, an NU co-founder and the founder of the Denanyar Islamic boarding school in Jombang.
While it is true that Cak Imin is not part of the PBNU structural elite, the PKB—the party he leads—is the only party in Indonesia that shares a deep social ecosystem with NU at the regional level. PKB and NU are like two entities under the same roof—occupying different “rooms,” perhaps, but sharing the same house.
It is within this context that Cak Imin’s influence shapes the dynamics of the 35th NU Congress. Only “observers” who fail to understand either NU or PKB would attempt to separate the two; politically speaking, such a separation is impossible.
This explains why the Cak Imin factor is so significant. Whichever of the two camps secures Cak Imin’s alliance stands a very strong chance of winning the contest at the 35th NU Congress.
The challenge, however, is that Cak Imin is a skilled politician; he cannot easily be pulled into either camp—not even by the late Prof… Syafie Ma’arif, former chairman of Muhammadiyah, has described Cak Imin as “the real politician”—the most tactical politician within NU.
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It is entirely possible that Cak Imin might strike out on his own by drawing in one of the two aforementioned factions—or, at the very least, by forming a “third axis” and championing an “alternative candidate”—driven by situational necessity and tactical political calculations.
As for the potential obstacle posed by NU’s statutes and bylaws (AD/ART)—which stipulate that a candidate for the PBNU chairmanship must have severed ties with any political party structure one year prior to the NU Congress—this is merely a “technical” issue or a procedural matter regarding the rules of order.
Historically, NU has proven itself highly adept at resolving such technical complexities; all such issues can be settled through consensus within the arena of the NU Congress, the organization’s highest decision-making forum.
In short, let us await the unfolding dynamics leading up to the 35th NU Congress and its potential surprises—a realm of probability where the final outcome is often difficult to predict.
“It wouldn’t be the NU we know if it didn’t deliver unexpected surprises,” wrote Prof. Burhanudin Muhtadi, a national political analyst (*Tempo*, August 2015).
Best regards.
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