SURVEY ANALYSIS OF THE CANDIDATES FOR PBNU GENERAL CHAIRMANSHIP 2026-2031 AND THEIR PROBABILITIES
By: H. Adlan Daie
Political Analyst, Secretary General of the Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI), Indramayu Regency
In the public opinion survey released by the “Institut Nahdliyyin Nusantara,” abbreviated as “Insantara” (published by “TribunNews,” March 18, 2026), three NU figures are favored as candidates for PBNU General Chairperson 2026-2031. These are KH Imam Jazuli (26%), KH Marzuqi Mustamar (22%), and Gus Yusuf Chudlori (17%).
Following incumbent Gus Yahya (9%), KH Zulfa Mustofa (4.6%), Gus Salam (4.2%), and Prof. Nazarudin Umar (4.0%), Gus Ipul (3.6%), and Nusron Wahid (2.7%), while the chairmen of the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) in East Java, Central Java, and West Java each had a variance of no more than 2%.
Methodologically, this survey (conducted from February 20 to March 15, 2026) met the standards of public opinion surveys, using a multi-stage random sampling method and involving a large number of respondents, 5,900, with 70% of respondents from the community and 30% from the PWNU and PCNU management elements.
In the author’s analysis, the probability and likelihood map of this survey results cannot be fully interpreted as a trend in the level of electability at the upcoming 35th NU Congress.
The reason is simple, of course, because this public opinion survey does not, in terms of electoral representation, represent the voters (PWNU and PCNU chairmen) who will participate in the NU Congress.
This is the difference between public opinion surveys that focus on the voter population, as in general elections and regional elections, and the voter turnout at the NU Congress, which is “selected voters,” held by a limited number of members of the NU Central Executive Board (PWNU) and the NU Central Executive Board (PCNU), making it difficult to interpret in public opinion surveys.
Furthermore, other variables, such as those who excel in the survey, may not necessarily be interested in running for PBNU Chairman, or the existence of tactical alliances between political forces to support a particular candidate, or the “blessing” of the elected Rois Am at the Congress.
Regardless of the probabilities and possibilities mentioned above, the results of this survey send an important message that should not be underestimated by voter holders (PWNU and PCNU) and candidates running for PBNU Chairman.
First, NU is not merely a “jam’iyah” (structural management) but also a “jamaah” (cultural community). The survey results are a critique of the NU leadership by “NU members,” stating that leading the NU organization is not a “political game” but rather a “tashirruful imam ‘ala ar roiyah manutun bilnmaslahah” (a principle of good governance and good governance), with structural policies representing the welfare and role models of the cultural “NU members.”
Second, the survey results highlight KH Imam Jazuli, KH Marzuki Mustamar, and Gus Yusuf Chudlori as not being elite figures within the current PBNU. However, the current PBNU leadership, such as Gus Yahya and Gus Ipul, ranks far below them. This aligns with the 80% public perception of dissatisfaction with the current PBNU leadership in this survey.
In other words, this survey sends a message about the need among NU members for an alternative PBNU leader, or at least a new orientation for NU in the projection of the 35th NU Congress in 2026. A PBNU leadership that is “connected” to the will of the NU community, not a tool for its administrators in political power relations.
This is a crucial point in constructing this survey map. Once again, it cannot be ignored by NU administrators, as they represent the collective will of the NU community (NU members). The responsibility of the “jam’iyah,” the administrators, as the locomotive, is to pull the long train of the NU “congregation” in social mobility.
The “sexy” and interesting question is why so many people in this survey expressed “dissatisfaction” (80%) with the current PBNU leadership. Is it too “attached” to political power, thus diminishing its critical thinking as a cornerstone of civil society’s moral support, or are its programs too high-minded and disconnected from the social problems of NU members?
This is where further surveys are crucial to understand the wishes of the “NU community” for the future leadership of the Central Board of Nahdlatul Ulama (PBNU) as a moral pillar of the community on the one hand and a cultural pillar of national integration on the other, within the NU civilization roadmap.
At the very least, the PBNU will be able to maintain consistency in its “tawashut” stance, maintaining a balance between the interests of the community and the interests of political power, which will be reconstructed in the PBNU’s future work. That is the “Khittah” of NU civilization.**
Wassalam
Indramayu, March 21, 2026
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